From Sandton to Shanghai

(Charting a new course to the mainland? Photo: Julian Hewitt)

In a busy week for China - Taiwan relations, Malawi switched its diplomatic allegiance to China after officially recognizing Taiwan for the past 4 decades. The rumoured USD6 billion dollar cash incentive will easily smooth over any transition challenges.

Taiwan have also just concluded their parliamentary elections, with the Nationalist Party (KMT) winning an overwhelming majority from the ‘splitist’ rhetoric of Chen Shui-bian and his Democratic Progressive Party that has been a thorn in China’s side for the last few years.

With Malawi in the China fold, it is now a case of ‘1 more country down, 23 to go’ in China’s 59-year long sovereignty tussle with Taiwan. On the other side of the fence, Taiwan is quite literally playing its end game with some of the most random countries in the world.

It was in 1949 when China’s Nationalist Party (KMT) took refuge on the island of Taiwan after fleeing from Mao’s Communist Party. It was from their island base that they continued to claim ‘rightful rulership’ over China. For a while thereafter, the threat of global communism went a long way for most Western countries to support their claim.

However time and economics are the great levelers. Today, Taiwan is home to 23 million people while China boasts over 1.3 billion inhabitants.

China’s coup de grace came way back in 1971 when it not only replaced Taiwan as a UN member country but also ascended to the lofty heights of the 5-member UN Security Council. Not only did most of the big economies shift diplomatic ties around this period, but China’s power of veto has precluded any Taiwan membership applications ever since.

The interesting thing is that Taiwan has never officially claimed independence from China. It still clings doggedly to the notion that it holds the mandate of heaven for Chinese people. As this becomes a more and more remote possibility, Taiwan’s threats of independence have become more amplified as a last desperate straw. It is this independence proposition that gets the China - Taiwan relationship on edge more than anything else.

While South Africa enjoys 10 years of diplomatic relations with China this year, Taiwan is still recognized by 4 African countries: Swaziland, Sao Tome and Principe, Burkina Faso, and Gambia. It is only in Central America that Taiwan still holds some semblance of sway with diplomatic relations to countries like Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama and Nicaragua.

However, there is one country that still retains Taiwan links that carries the weighting of at least the other 22 countries combined. This country is a key cornerstone in China’s foreign policy and actually has some serious bargaining power with no hindrance of political time pressure.

With 1.1 billion members around the world, the Holy See of Vatican City still recognizes Taiwan above China. However, relationships are already thawing with China and when the Vatican City inevitably switches flags (I give it 5 - 10 years), this will truly be the last diplomatic nail in the Taiwan’s coffin and a big boost for Christianity in China’s largely spiritual vacuum.

(In this article, China refers to ‘The People’s Republic of China’. Taiwan is officially known as ‘The Republic of China’ or ROC. Taiwan is actually the name of the largest island under ROC leadership)