From Sandton to Shanghai
A China-Africa Knowledge Blog from a South African living in Shanghai

From Sandton to Shanghai

Christmas Comes Early for Chinese Mining Companies

December 23rd, 2008 . by Julian Hewitt

Australian Mining Stocks on the Slide

(Australian Mining Stocks on the Decline: S&P ASX 300 Mining and Metals Index showing a 49% drop over 6 months ended 1 December 2008)

‘Be bold on expanding overseas’ is the near official line hailing from China Daily’s front page yesterday.

After years of battling to keep input costs down amid a rampant commodity boom, the current global economic marketplace has swung round 180 degrees in China’s favour.

A strong sense of risk aversion is definitely needed after China’s baptism of fire on the international investment scene. Recent overseas equity purchases at the height of the business cycle have definitely burnt deep holes in the balance sheet: Rio Tinto, Fortis, Barclays and Blackstone have all been far from pretty.

“These are rare opportunities for Chinese enterprises which want to expand overseas,” emphasized Zheng Xinli, vice-director of the Policy Research Office of the CPC Central Committee. You can almost sense the anticipation in the air. Hard lessons have been learnt, but we seem to be in a strategic pause before a concerted buying spree in 2009.

Australia will be one of the first destinations.

In the past 6 months, listed Australian resource stocks have lost up to 60% of their market capitalisation. Over the same period, the Australian Dollar currency depreciation has moved over 30% in China’s favour.

Australia is China’s most successful resource investment destination. The market is efficient, well managed and transparent. Its proximity to China keeps logistics costs down. Iron and high quality coal - bountiful in Australia - are staple products for China’s manufacturing economy and in short supply back home.

What will make this investment period different from before is the move to M&As and significant ownership levels. This is a sharp contrast from China’s previous preference for a more hands-off policy of minority stakes, off-take agreements and long term contracts.

Here are a few more tangibles to look out for:

  • Iron Ore and Coal Companies are priorities
  • China’s SOEs will take the lead like Sinosteel, Baosteel, Angang Steel, CITIC, Yangzhou Coal, Shenhua and Chinalco
  • Keep tabs on smaller, more nimble and internationally adept Chinese resource players like Jiangsu Shagang , Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Jinchuan and Hunan Nonferrous
  • Expect large equity stakes in companies part of recent large-scale M&As who are now saddled with a huge debt burden like Rio Tinto, Oz Minerals

Africa’s New Colonialists?

April 10th, 2008 . by Julian Hewitt

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Africa’s New Colonialists

Julian Hewitt
Published 5 April 2008

“India and China have become Africa’s new colonialists,” declared respected international financier, George Soros, during a Reuters interview earlier this year. More recently, the Economist ran with a cover story titled “The new colonialists”, which detailed China’s huge appetite for acquiring global resources.

The real question is whether there is any fire behind this talk of “colonialist” smoke.

While Beijing has gone to great efforts to play down any comparison with Africa’s former colonial masters, this tag will probably not be far from the surface of the Africa-China debate as China’s substantial financial and political investment on the continent starts to show dividends.

One only needs to take a look at recent trade and investment numbers between China and Africa to tell that something significant has happened within a really short space of time.

China’s bilateral trade with Africa has gone from a negligible $12-million in 1956 to $73,6-billion in 2007, making China Africa’s third-largest trading partner in the process. Forecasts predict that this figure will surpass $100-billion by 2010.

Further signs have been profound. Last year was a watershed year for Chinese investment into Africa. Firstly, a $9-billion financial and infrastructural package was signed with the mineral-rich Democratic Republic of Congo. This would be China’s single biggest country-to-country investment to date.

Then, a few months later, China’s largest bank, ICBC, bought a 20% equity stake in Standard Bank for $5,5-billion — which, at the time, was one of both Africa and China’s largest transactions and clearly signalled the fact that the Chinese powers that be were embarking on a holistic investment approach to Africa.

However, to really get a sense of China’s unfolding relationship with Africa and whether it warrants “colonialist” warning bells going off, it is worth unpacking the key drivers that have given rise to the present situation.

Firstly, the timing perspective is important to comprehend. When China emerged on the global scene through its “Go-Out Strategy” in 1991, it saw Africa from another viewpoint to the basket case of poverty, corruption and violence that Africa had largely been written off as by the rest of the world.

The continent that China saw was one that was emerging from decades of post-colonial chaos to a period of increased socio-political stability. Most importantly, though, Africa was also home to the world’s largest untapped oil and raw materials that China so desperately needed to meet its vast industrialisation requirements.

With the most accessible and economically viable natural resources already sewn up by the developed world, China had few other places to turn to.

Secondly, it is important to keep in mind that China’s foreign policy has been virtually unwavering from its stand of “non-interference” in an external country’s domestic issues. This stance distances China from the traditional definition of colonialism that involves political, territorial control. The flipside, though, is that China is not morally selective about which regimes it has dealt with.

There is, however, a definite political element to China’s African relations. Most Chinese companies that have invested in Africa are still state-owned and are pursuing national resource mandates. To a large degree, China’s heavy government to government involvement has been essential in limiting the risks of investing in some of Africa’s most unstable countries such as Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

But it is probably the scale of Chinese commercial infrastructure in Africa that should be the biggest cause for colonial unease. China is building almost 5 000km of rail network to connect mines with harbours, while also investing heavily in port facilities in many African countries along the Indian and Atlantic seaboard.

Furthermore, Chinese sources are already projecting that 40% of its oil and gas imports will originate from Africa, and countries such as Sudan, Nigeria and Angola have all seen heavy investment in oil-related infrastructure.

Over time, it is logical to assume that as China’s economic interests in Africa deepen, so too should its political impetus. This is where the lines with neocolonialism get blurred.

Nevertheless, China’s current ambitions clearly do not involve the same institutionalisation of political and economic jurisdiction that countries such as Britain, France, Belgium and Portugal exerted in days gone by.

To its credit, China has been ultra cautious about ensuring it projects a relationship of equals with its African partners. While it is definitely the chief instigator in China-Africa affairs, keep in mind that it was not too long ago when China itself was at the receiving end of colonialism’s darker side.

No nation in the world can truly claim to be void of self-interested tendencies and this is very much how China’s relationship with Africa should be described. Painting China with broad colonial brush strokes does not accurately assess its current role on the continent.

Still, a note of caution is needed. When Mao Zedong was once asked what he thought of the French Revolution, he famously responded: “It’s too early to tell.” In a similar vein, maybe the same can be said for the merits of China’s relationship with Africa.


Why China Will Soon Invest in a Major South African Platinum Mine

March 8th, 2008 . by Julian Hewitt

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(Platinum Ore. Source: DK Images)

Here is a straight forward prediction for years 2008 and 2009: A Chinese mining company will buy a minority stake in a major South African platinum mine.

China’s automobile production has skyrocketed in recent years. In Beijing if you are a successful government official you drive a black Audi and if you are a successful entrepreneur (or at least want your friends to think so), then your vehicle of choice is a black BMW. Driving a car is a great status symbol and the only difference with most of South Africa’s up and coming black professionals is that in China, you first buy your house, then a depreciating asset.

As China gets richer, so the local vehicle market is hotting up and major cities like Beijing are experiencing huge traffic congestion on roads that were predominated by bicycles a generation ago.

Shanghai is smarter on the car front. Firstly, people are happier to catch public transport as image is not as important is its political rival to the north. Elevated highways, sometimes 4 layers deep and stretching up to 10 floors above the hum drum of congested traffic lights spirit traffic along at a speedier rate. But probably the biggest deterrent is that while an entry level car will cost just over R30 000, you need to participate in an auction process to buy a Shanghai license plate. Without this you are relegated to driving along non arterial roads. At the end of 2007, buying your local Shanghai license plate was a whopping R55 000 - nearing double the price of your car!

China now produces in excess of 7 million cars per annum and is second only to the USA in vehicle manufacture. In 1999, China adopted the Euro 1 emission standard that required all domestically produced vehicles to be fitted with catalytic converters and almost all of China’s vehicle exports are to countries with emissions standards in place.

Currently, catalytic converters account for over 60% of platinum consumption. Only one Chinese mining company on the planet has a direct interest in a platinum mine and this is not even an operational development yet. South Africa has over 77% of the global platinum supply with 50% of this is processed locally.

While platinum was not one of China’s strategic resources, it is fast becoming more important as China powers up the global car manufacturing rankings. All this points to South Africa sooner than later…