From Sandton to Shanghai

(A Reunification gift from the Mainland to Taiwan. When put together, the Panda names mean ‘reunited.’ Taiwan is a key part in China’s Superpower puzzle. Photo Source: Shanghai Daily)

China’s current rise is often viewed through a lens of economic indicators. It is after all China’s sustained economic growth rates over a period of 30 years that pushed the country back into the global spotlight.

However, while Goldman Sachs famously predicted that China’s economy will overtake that of the USA by the year 2025, the more important question to be answered is:

‘When will it be poignant to say that China has arrived as the world’s next superpower?’

At the end of the day, while a superpower is more than just a big economy, it is through having a big economy that China will start influencing global agendas and exerting significant international influence.

In China reaching superpower status, there are two definitive indicators to look out for. They represent significant global milestones that will be the catalyst for pushing China beyond the realms of a sizable global economic entity.

• Reunification with Taiwan
• Man on the Moon

1. Reunification with Taiwan

The latest gift from Mainland China to Taipei was of a pair of giant pandas. Their names - Tuan Tuan and Yuan Yuan - are deeply symbolic. Added together, ‘tuanyuan’ means ‘reunification’ in Mandarin and there will be much pressure on the panda couple to add to this symbolism by producing a new generation of reunited offspring in Taiwan.

The China -Taiwan togetherness issue, notwithstanding bumps along the way, is a matter of when not if. Even Japan has expressed recent concern at just how much momentum has been made on the cross straits relationships front - to the detriment of its own interactions with Taiwan.

Taiwan’s reunification with China is profound on many levels. Economically, there are great benefits on either side. Politically, it will represent a united force in the region on an issue that has often been a powerful, divisive wedge in recent history.

It will also be a huge gain of face for the Chinese people and government after being spurned by the Nationalists 60 years ago. Reunification will finally show that after many wrong leadership and economic turns, the Chinese nation has thrown off its internal chaos and emerged as a swan on the other side.

Probably little explored is the cultural importance of a China - Taiwan merger. The Cultural Revolution had devastating effects on Chinese society including destroying centuries of traditions and cultural heritage.

This is by no means a unique experience in Chinese history - it has often gone through severe book-burning periods between chaotic dynasty transitions. However, it was the reconnection with this lost heritage through cultural emissaries that have then speeded up China’s subsequent development phase.

Taiwan is this emissary - representing a physical and cultural treasure trove for their Mainland counterparts that have largely been protected from China’s tumultuous purges under the Great Helmsman Mao. The reintegration of this knowledge in all its many forms across various levels of society will give great depth to refocusing attention on China’s long held mantle as the Middle Kingdom.

2. Man on the Moon

As respected academics pointed after the historic 2008 Beijing Olympics, it is fine for China win the Olympic Gold Medal tally, but what really counts is China winning gold on the science and technology front - an area that it is severely lacking in on at the moment.

As mentioned in a previous posting, I predict that the next man on the moon will be Chinese. There are many assumptions that make sense for China to have a big, over-arching national goal - both to see the country through the difficult transition from a socialist to a market economy and also to focus the nation and its economic engine on the next big prize.

In essence, now that the battle for the ‘manufacturing’ mountains has been won, the battle for the ‘science and technology’ plains has begun.

Putting a man on the moon by the year 2020 will show serious intention to spend on military hardware that puts China at the forefront of global martial influence. Such a focus would also serve to wean China away from imported technology. Having a concentration on home-growing innovation has strong downstream benefits too - both for broader society and as a means to build China’s next generation of global super companies.

In the Greater Scheme of Things

Reunification with Taiwan would reflect that China’s economic environment is strong enough to be at the negotiating table in the first place. From cross strait bridges would arise strong political and cultural progress beyond regional borders.

Putting a Man on the Moon will also point to a substantial economy that can effectively engage in long-term planning and invest significant resources in science and technology development. Its outcome of home grown technology will support global business ambitions and significantly increase international military prowess.

Having obtained these 2 key pieces of the puzzle - reuniting with Taiwan and putting a Man on the Moon, China will be in its strongest position in over 500 years, while also clearly having arrived alongside the USA as the world’s next superpower.

(Charting a new course to the mainland? Photo: Julian Hewitt)

In a busy week for China - Taiwan relations, Malawi switched its diplomatic allegiance to China after officially recognizing Taiwan for the past 4 decades. The rumoured USD6 billion dollar cash incentive will easily smooth over any transition challenges.

Taiwan have also just concluded their parliamentary elections, with the Nationalist Party (KMT) winning an overwhelming majority from the ‘splitist’ rhetoric of Chen Shui-bian and his Democratic Progressive Party that has been a thorn in China’s side for the last few years.

With Malawi in the China fold, it is now a case of ‘1 more country down, 23 to go’ in China’s 59-year long sovereignty tussle with Taiwan. On the other side of the fence, Taiwan is quite literally playing its end game with some of the most random countries in the world.

It was in 1949 when China’s Nationalist Party (KMT) took refuge on the island of Taiwan after fleeing from Mao’s Communist Party. It was from their island base that they continued to claim ‘rightful rulership’ over China. For a while thereafter, the threat of global communism went a long way for most Western countries to support their claim.

However time and economics are the great levelers. Today, Taiwan is home to 23 million people while China boasts over 1.3 billion inhabitants.

China’s coup de grace came way back in 1971 when it not only replaced Taiwan as a UN member country but also ascended to the lofty heights of the 5-member UN Security Council. Not only did most of the big economies shift diplomatic ties around this period, but China’s power of veto has precluded any Taiwan membership applications ever since.

The interesting thing is that Taiwan has never officially claimed independence from China. It still clings doggedly to the notion that it holds the mandate of heaven for Chinese people. As this becomes a more and more remote possibility, Taiwan’s threats of independence have become more amplified as a last desperate straw. It is this independence proposition that gets the China - Taiwan relationship on edge more than anything else.

While South Africa enjoys 10 years of diplomatic relations with China this year, Taiwan is still recognized by 4 African countries: Swaziland, Sao Tome and Principe, Burkina Faso, and Gambia. It is only in Central America that Taiwan still holds some semblance of sway with diplomatic relations to countries like Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama and Nicaragua.

However, there is one country that still retains Taiwan links that carries the weighting of at least the other 22 countries combined. This country is a key cornerstone in China’s foreign policy and actually has some serious bargaining power with no hindrance of political time pressure.

With 1.1 billion members around the world, the Holy See of Vatican City still recognizes Taiwan above China. However, relationships are already thawing with China and when the Vatican City inevitably switches flags (I give it 5 - 10 years), this will truly be the last diplomatic nail in the Taiwan’s coffin and a big boost for Christianity in China’s largely spiritual vacuum.

(In this article, China refers to ‘The People’s Republic of China’. Taiwan is officially known as ‘The Republic of China’ or ROC. Taiwan is actually the name of the largest island under ROC leadership)